thinking-probabilistic
Express confidence in ranges, update predictions with new information, and track calibration over time. Use for project estimation, risk assessment, and decision making under uncertainty.
Profile →npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill thinking-probabilistic --agent claude-code
Same command for any agent — swap --agent for codex, cursor, copilot.
Weekly change comes from our own snapshots, not the repository page — it measures attention, not adoption.
# Probabilistic Thinking ## Overview Probabilistic thinking, informed by the research of Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting," treats beliefs as probabilities rather than certainties. Good probabilistic thinkers express confidence in ranges, update beliefs when evidence changes, and track their accuracy to improve calibration over time. **Core Principle:** Express beliefs as probabilities. Track predictions. Update when wrong. Calibrate over time. ## When to Use - Project timeline estimation - Risk assessment - Predicting outcomes (launches, decisions, events) - Evaluating uncertain technical choices - Making decisions without complete information - Any forecast or prediction Decision flow: ``` Making a prediction? → Is outcome uncertain? → yes → EXPRESS AS PROBABILITY → Can you track the outcome? → yes → RECORD AND CALIBRATE → New information available? → yes → UPDATE PROBABILITY ``` ## Core Concepts ### Probability as Confidence Convert vague language to numbers: | Vague Statement | Probability Range | |-----------------|-------------------| | "Certain" | 99%+ | | "Almost certain" | 90-99% | | "Very likely" | 80-90% | | "Likely" / "Probable" | 65-80% | | "Better than even" | 55-65
- Overview
- When to Use
- Core Concepts
- Probability as Confidence
- Confidence Intervals
- Base Rates
- The Probabilistic Process
- Step 1: Express Initial Probability
- Step 2: Identify Key Uncertainties
- Step 3: Create Probability Tree
- Step 4: Update with New Information
- Step 5: Record and Track
- Step 6: Calibrate Over Time
- Calibration Techniques
What does the thinking-probabilistic skill do?
Express confidence in ranges, update predictions with new information, and track calibration over time. Use for project estimation, risk assessment, and decision making under uncertainty.
How do I install it?
Run `npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill thinking-probabilistic --agent claude-code` — it drops the skill into your project so the agent can pick it up. Swap the --agent value for codex, cursor or copilot if you use one of those.
Where does this skill come from?
From majiayu000/claude-skill-registry, a repository with 534 stars. We read it straight from the repository tree rather than a submitted listing, so what you see here is what is actually published.
Is a popular skill a good skill?
Not necessarily. Stars measure attention, not adoption — a repository can trend for a week and be abandoned. That is why we show the weekly change from our own snapshots next to the total, instead of a single flattering number.