thinking-bayesian
Update beliefs systematically based on new evidence using probabilistic reasoning. Use when estimating probabilities, learning from data, or making decisions under uncertainty.
npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill thinking-bayesian --agent claude-code
Same command for any agent — swap --agent for codex, cursor, copilot.
Weekly change comes from our own snapshots, not the repository page — it measures attention, not adoption.
# Bayesian Reasoning ## Overview Bayesian thinking provides a framework for updating beliefs based on new evidence. Rather than treating beliefs as binary (true/false), it recognizes degrees of confidence that should shift as evidence accumulates. This approach, rooted in Bayes' Theorem, helps avoid both overconfidence and underreaction to new information. **Core Principle:** Beliefs are probabilities that should update incrementally as evidence arrives. Strong priors require strong evidence to shift. ## When to Use - Estimating probabilities or likelihoods - Interpreting test results or metrics - Making decisions with incomplete information - Evaluating competing hypotheses - Learning from experiments or A/B tests - Diagnosing problems with uncertain causes - Predicting outcomes based on historical data Decision flow: ``` Uncertain about something? → yes → Have prior belief? → yes → New evidence? → APPLY BAYESIAN UPDATE ↘ no → Establish base rate first ↘ no → Standard analysis may suffice ``` ## Key Concepts ### Prior Probability Your belief BEFORE seeing new evidence: ``` P(H) = probability that hypothesis H is true Example: Before any symptoms, what's the probability someone has
- Overview
- When to Use
- Key Concepts
- Prior Probability
- Likelihood
- Posterior Probability
- Bayes' Theorem
- Intuitive Form
- The Process
- Step 1: Establish Your Prior
- Step 2: Assess the Evidence
- Step 3: Update Your Belief
- Step 4: Iterate as More Evidence Arrives
- Common Applications
What does the thinking-bayesian skill do?
Update beliefs systematically based on new evidence using probabilistic reasoning. Use when estimating probabilities, learning from data, or making decisions under uncertainty.
How do I install it?
Run `npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill thinking-bayesian --agent claude-code` — it drops the skill into your project so the agent can pick it up. Swap the --agent value for codex, cursor or copilot if you use one of those.
Where does this skill come from?
From majiayu000/claude-skill-registry, a repository with 534 stars. We read it straight from the repository tree rather than a submitted listing, so what you see here is what is actually published.
Is a popular skill a good skill?
Not necessarily. Stars measure attention, not adoption — a repository can trend for a week and be abandoned. That is why we show the weekly change from our own snapshots next to the total, instead of a single flattering number.