runway-monte-carlo
Cash runway as a distribution, not a number — Monte Carlo simulated. Use when someone asks how long their cash lasts, when to start fundraising, or how burn/revenue volatility changes their runway; especially when the naive cash÷burn answer is driving a decision. Produces P10/P50/P90 runway, month-by-month death probabilities, and a real .xlsx with editable assumptions and a live naive-runway formula — via the bundled zero-dependency simulator.
npx skills add mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills --skill runway-monte-carlo --agent claude-code
Same command for any agent — swap --agent for codex, cursor, copilot.
Weekly change comes from our own snapshots, not the repository page — it measures attention, not adoption.
# Runway Monte Carlo "Cash divided by burn" is one path through a fan of thousands. Real burn wobbles, revenue growth compounds or doesn't, and the difference between the median path and the unlucky-decile path is the difference between a calm raise and a bridge round. This skill runs the simulation — thousands of paths, actual random draws by the bundled script — and reports runway the way it actually behaves: as percentiles. ## Required Inputs - **Cash today** and **monthly gross burn** — the two non-negotiables. - **Monthly revenue** and **monthly revenue growth** (optional — zero for pre-revenue). - **Volatility** (optional, defaults: burn σ 10%, growth σ 25% of the growth rate) — from the requester's history if they have it, defaults if not, stated either way. - Horizon (default 36 months) and simulation count (default 5,000). ## Output Format 1. **The distribution** — P10 (unlucky), P50 (median), P90 (lucky) runway in months, the survival probability at the horizon, and the naive cash÷net-burn number alongside for contrast. 2. **The death curve** — % of simulated paths out of cash by each month; the months where it steepens are the danger window. 3. **The decision line** — th
- Required Inputs
- Output Format
- Programmatic Helper
- Quality Checks
- Anti-Patterns
python3 scripts/runway_sim.py run runway.xlsx --cash 2400000 --burn 210000 --burn-vol 0.12 \
What does the runway-monte-carlo skill do?
Cash runway as a distribution, not a number — Monte Carlo simulated. Use when someone asks how long their cash lasts, when to start fundraising, or how burn/revenue volatility changes their runway; especially when the naive cash÷burn answer is driving a decision. Produces P10/P50/P90 runway, month-by-month death probabilities, and a real .xlsx with editable assumptions and a live naive-runway formula — via the bundled zero-dependency simulator.
How do I install it?
Run `npx skills add mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills --skill runway-monte-carlo --agent claude-code` — it drops the skill into your project so the agent can pick it up. Swap the --agent value for codex, cursor or copilot if you use one of those.
Where does this skill come from?
From mohitagw15856/pm-claude-skills, a repository with 1,255 stars. We read it straight from the repository tree rather than a submitted listing, so what you see here is what is actually published.
Is a popular skill a good skill?
Not necessarily. Stars measure attention, not adoption — a repository can trend for a week and be abandoned. That is why we show the weekly change from our own snapshots next to the total, instead of a single flattering number.