reference-class-forecaster
Reference class forecasting skill to counter optimism bias using historical analogies
npx skills add a5c-ai/babysitter --skill reference-class-forecaster --agent claude-code
Same command for any agent — swap --agent for codex, cursor, copilot.
Weekly change comes from our own snapshots, not the repository page — it measures attention, not adoption.
# Reference Class Forecaster ## Overview The Reference Class Forecaster skill implements reference class forecasting methodology to counter optimism bias and the planning fallacy. It uses historical data from comparable projects or decisions to generate empirically-grounded forecasts, providing an "outside view" to complement internal estimates. ## Capabilities - Reference class selection and validation - Distribution fitting from historical data - Adjustment factor calculation - Uncertainty quantification - Bias correction for planning fallacy - Documentation of reference class rationale - Comparison with inside view estimates - Reconciliation guidance ## Used By Processes - Cognitive Bias Debiasing Process - Decision Quality Assessment - Strategic Scenario Development ## Usage ### Reference Class Definition ```python # Define reference class reference_class = { "name": "Enterprise Software Implementations", "description": "Large-scale ERP implementations in manufacturing companies", "criteria": { "project_type": "ERP implementation", "industry": "manufacturing", "company_size": {"min": 1000, "max": 10000, "metric": "employees"}, "project_budget": {"min": 5000000, "max": 20000000}
- Overview
- Capabilities
- Used By Processes
- Usage
- Reference Class Definition
- Historical Data
- Inside View Estimate
- Adjustment Configuration
- Reference Class Selection Criteria
- Input Schema
- Output Schema
- Best Practices
- Bias Correction
- Integration Points
What does the reference-class-forecaster skill do?
Reference class forecasting skill to counter optimism bias using historical analogies
How do I install it?
Run `npx skills add a5c-ai/babysitter --skill reference-class-forecaster --agent claude-code` — it drops the skill into your project so the agent can pick it up. Swap the --agent value for codex, cursor or copilot if you use one of those.
Where does this skill come from?
From a5c-ai/babysitter, a repository with 1,642 stars. We read it straight from the repository tree rather than a submitted listing, so what you see here is what is actually published.
Is a popular skill a good skill?
Not necessarily. Stars measure attention, not adoption — a repository can trend for a week and be abandoned. That is why we show the weekly change from our own snapshots next to the total, instead of a single flattering number.