forecast-premortem
Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.
npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill forecast-premortem-nicepkg-ai-workflow --agent claude-code
Same command for any agent — swap --agent for codex, cursor, copilot.
Weekly change comes from our own snapshots, not the repository page — it measures attention, not adoption.
# Forecast Pre-Mortem ## Table of Contents - [What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?](#what-is-a-forecast-pre-mortem) - [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill) - [Interactive Menu](#interactive-menu) - [Quick Reference](#quick-reference) - [Resource Files](#resource-files) --- ## What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem? A **forecast pre-mortem** is a stress-testing technique where you assume your prediction has already failed and work backward to construct the history of how it failed. This reveals blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence. **Core Principle:** Invert the problem. Don't ask "Will this succeed?" Ask "It has failed - why?" **Why It Matters:** - Defeats overconfidence by forcing you to imagine failure - Identifies specific failure modes you hadn't considered - Transforms vague doubt into concrete risk variables - Widens confidence intervals appropriately - Surfaces "unknown unknowns" **Origin:** Gary Klein's "premortem" technique, adapted for probabilistic forecasting --- ## When to Use This Skill Use this skill when: - **High confidence** (>80% or <20%) - Most likely to be overconfident - **Feeling certain** - Certainty is a red flag in forecasting - **Prediction is importa
- Table of Contents
- What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?
- When to Use This Skill
- Interactive Menu
- Core Workflows
- 1. Run a Failure Premortem
- Step 1: State the prediction and current confidence
- Step 2: Time travel to failure
- Step 3: Write the history of failure
- Step 4: Identify concrete failure modes
- Step 5: Assess plausibility and adjust
- 2. Run a Success Premortem
- Step 1: State pessimistic prediction
- Step 2: Time travel to success
What does the forecast-premortem skill do?
Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.
How do I install it?
Run `npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill forecast-premortem-nicepkg-ai-workflow --agent claude-code` — it drops the skill into your project so the agent can pick it up. Swap the --agent value for codex, cursor or copilot if you use one of those.
Where does this skill come from?
From majiayu000/claude-skill-registry, a repository with 534 stars. We read it straight from the repository tree rather than a submitted listing, so what you see here is what is actually published.
Is a popular skill a good skill?
Not necessarily. Stars measure attention, not adoption — a repository can trend for a week and be abandoned. That is why we show the weekly change from our own snapshots next to the total, instead of a single flattering number.