detect-freight-led-inflation-turn
透過美國卡斯貨運指數 (CASS Freight Index) 的週期轉折，偵測美國通膨壓力是否進入放緩或反轉階段。用於判斷「通膨是否正在降溫」，並驗證市場對降息、通膨回落的宏觀敘事是否有實體經濟數據支撐。
npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill detect-freight-led-inflation-turn --agent claude-code
Same command for any agent — swap --agent for codex, cursor, copilot.
Weekly change comes from our own snapshots, not the repository page — it measures attention, not adoption.
<essential_principles> <principle name="cass_freight_index"> **CASS Freight Index 是最權威的貨運指標** CASS Freight Index 由 Cass Information Systems 編制，追蹤北美地區的貨運出貨量與支出： | 指標 | 說明 | 用途 | |------------------------|--------------|------------------------------| | **Shipments Index** | 出貨量指數 | 衡量實體經濟需求強度 | | **Expenditures Index** | 運費支出指數 | 衡量物流成本壓力 | | **Shipments YoY** | 出貨量年增率 | 偵測週期轉折（主要分析指標） | | **Expenditures YoY** | 支出年增率 | 驗證成本傳導 | 數據來源：MacroMicro (透過 Highcharts 爬取) </principle> <principle name="freight_leads_inflation"> **貨運量是通膨的領先指標** 核心邏輯： - 貨運量 ≈ 實體經濟需求強度 - 出貨量下降 → 終端需求減弱 → 定價能力下降 - 歷史上 CASS 指標對 CPI 具有約 4-6 個月的領先性 關鍵訊號不是單月變化，而是「週期轉折」： - 年增率轉負 (turned negative) - 創週期新低 (new cycle low) </principle> <principle name="signal_interpretation"> **訊號解讀：通膨緩解而非通縮** 當偵測到 CASS 週期轉折： - 結論是「通膨壓力緩解」而非「通縮」 - 屬於 inflation easing / disinflation regime - 支持市場對降息或政策轉向的預期 這是跨週期關係辨識：「物流需求動能 → 通膨方向」 </principle> <principle name="multi_indicator"> **多指標交叉驗證** 建議同時觀察四個 CASS 指標： 1. **Shipments YoY**（主要）：需求端訊號 2. **Expenditures YoY**：成本端訊號 3. **Shipments Index**：絕對水準 4. **Expenditures Index**：運費壓力 當 Shipments 和 Expenditures 同時轉負，訊號更為可靠。 </principle> </essential_principles> <objective> 偵測 CASS Freight Index 的週
pip install requests websocket-client pandas numpy Windows cd scripts python fetch_cass_freight.py --cdp python freight_inflation_detector.py --quick python visualize_freight_cpi.py \ pip install selenium webdriver-manager python scripts/fetch_cass_freight.py --selenium --no-headless
What does the detect-freight-led-inflation-turn skill do?
透過美國卡斯貨運指數 (CASS Freight Index) 的週期轉折，偵測美國通膨壓力是否進入放緩或反轉階段。用於判斷「通膨是否正在降溫」，並驗證市場對降息、通膨回落的宏觀敘事是否有實體經濟數據支撐。
How do I install it?
Run `npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill detect-freight-led-inflation-turn --agent claude-code` — it drops the skill into your project so the agent can pick it up. Swap the --agent value for codex, cursor or copilot if you use one of those.
Where does this skill come from?
From majiayu000/claude-skill-registry, a repository with 534 stars. We read it straight from the repository tree rather than a submitted listing, so what you see here is what is actually published.
Is a popular skill a good skill?
Not necessarily. Stars measure attention, not adoption — a repository can trend for a week and be abandoned. That is why we show the weekly change from our own snapshots next to the total, instead of a single flattering number.