commercial-forecaster
Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board number — especially when the CRO needs to walk the board through funnel math + cohort ARR + per-stage conversion assumptions without the theatre of a single undefended number. Decomposes pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers; projects cohort-level NRR/GRR to surface leaky cohorts before they show up in the consolidated number; scores per-stage funnel confidence so soft-floor stages get treated differently from high-confidence ones. Every output
Profile →npx skills add alirezarezvani/claude-skills --skill commercial-forecaster --agent claude-code
Same command for any agent — swap --agent for codex, cursor, copilot.
Weekly change comes from our own snapshots, not the repository page — it measures attention, not adoption.
# commercial-forecaster ## Purpose Help Commercial leaders answer three questions at the forecast moment: 1. **What's the commit / best-case / pipe-only number?** (3-tier bookings forecast with disclosed assumptions) 2. **Which cohorts are leaking, and is the consolidated NRR hiding the leak?** (per-cohort NRR/GRR projection over horizon) 3. **Which funnel stages are reliable, and which are statistical noise?** (per-stage coefficient-of-variation confidence band) The skill recommends **three forecast numbers + an explicit assumption block**. The CRO presents the number, the board sees the assumptions, the theatre dies. ## When to use - Building the quarterly bookings forecast for the board - Preparing the QBR forecast where the CFO will ask "what's the commit, what's the best-case, what's the pipe-only" - Projecting ARR for next 4-8 quarters using cohort retention data - Suspecting a consolidated NRR number is hiding a leaky recent cohort - Pipeline-coverage is shrinking and you need to know which stages are still trustworthy - You're being asked for a "single number" and you need the structured answer that surfaces the assumption **Do not use for:** - Backward-looking financial cl
- Purpose
- When to use
- Workflow
- Step 1 — Intake pipeline + cohort + historical conversion data
- Step 2 — Run 3-tier bookings forecast
- Step 3 — Project cohort-level ARR
- Step 4 — Score per-stage funnel confidence
- Step 5 — Assemble the forecast deck
- Scripts
- References
- Assumptions
- Anti-patterns
- Distinct from
- Forcing-question library (Matt Pocock grill discipline)
What does the commercial-forecaster skill do?
Use when building a quarterly bookings forecast, ARR projection, pipeline forecast, NRR projection, or commit/best-case/pipe-only board number — especially when the CRO needs to walk the board through funnel math + cohort ARR + per-stage conversion assumptions without the theatre of a single undefended number. Decomposes pipeline into commit, best-case, and pipe-only tiers; projects cohort-level NRR/GRR to surface leaky cohorts before they show up in the consolidated number; scores per-stage funnel confidence so soft-floor stages get treated differently from high-confidence ones. Every output
How do I install it?
Run `npx skills add alirezarezvani/claude-skills --skill commercial-forecaster --agent claude-code` — it drops the skill into your project so the agent can pick it up. Swap the --agent value for codex, cursor or copilot if you use one of those.
Where does this skill come from?
From alirezarezvani/claude-skills, a repository with 23,791 stars. We read it straight from the repository tree rather than a submitted listing, so what you see here is what is actually published.
Is a popular skill a good skill?
Not necessarily. Stars measure attention, not adoption — a repository can trend for a week and be abandoned. That is why we show the weekly change from our own snapshots next to the total, instead of a single flattering number.