betting-strategy
Details the core betting strategy, including edge calculation, sport-specific thresholds, Kelly Criterion sizing, and portfolio optimization.
npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill betting-strategy --agent claude-code
Same command for any agent — swap --agent for codex, cursor, copilot.
Weekly change comes from our own snapshots, not the repository page — it measures attention, not adoption.
# Betting Strategy ## Edge Calculation ```python edge = elo_probability - market_probability ``` A bet is recommended when: 1. `elo_prob > threshold` (high confidence) 2. `edge > 0.05` (5%+ edge over market) ## Sport Thresholds | Sport | Threshold | Min Edge | Notes | |-------|-----------|----------|-------| | NBA | 73% | 5% | High-scoring, predictable | | NHL | 66% | 5% | High variance sport | | MLB | 67% | 5% | Lower home advantage | | NFL | 70% | 5% | Small sample size | ## Confidence Levels ```python def get_confidence(elo_prob, threshold): if elo_prob > threshold + 0.10: return "HIGH" elif elo_prob > threshold: return "MEDIUM" return None # Don't bet ``` ## Lift/Gain Analysis Validate model quality by decile: ```python from lift_gain_analysis import analyze_sport overall, current = analyze_sport('nba') # Key metrics: # - Lift > 1.0: Better than random # - Top decile lift > 1.3: Strong signal # - Gain %: Cumulative wins captured ``` **Interpretation:** - Decile 10 (highest prob): Should have highest lift - If lift < 1.0 in high deciles, model is miscalibrated - Set threshold where lift starts exceeding 1.2-1.3 ## Kelly Criterion Optimal bet sizing: ```python def kelly_fraction(
- Edge Calculation
- Sport Thresholds
- Confidence Levels
- Lift/Gain Analysis
- Kelly Criterion
- Portfolio Optimization
- Bet Tracking
- CLV (Closing Line Value)
- Files to Reference
What does the betting-strategy skill do?
Details the core betting strategy, including edge calculation, sport-specific thresholds, Kelly Criterion sizing, and portfolio optimization.
How do I install it?
Run `npx skills add majiayu000/claude-skill-registry --skill betting-strategy --agent claude-code` — it drops the skill into your project so the agent can pick it up. Swap the --agent value for codex, cursor or copilot if you use one of those.
Where does this skill come from?
From majiayu000/claude-skill-registry, a repository with 534 stars. We read it straight from the repository tree rather than a submitted listing, so what you see here is what is actually published.
Is a popular skill a good skill?
Not necessarily. Stars measure attention, not adoption — a repository can trend for a week and be abandoned. That is why we show the weekly change from our own snapshots next to the total, instead of a single flattering number.