assumption-validator

What it does

Systematically surface, classify, and stress-test assumptions in decisions, strategies, and plans. Transforms hidden assumptions into visible, testable propositions with load-bearing analysis and counterfactual validation. Proactively activates for pre-commitment decision reviews, strategy validation before execution, investment due diligence, architecture decision records, product direction pivots, and risk assessments requiring assumption audit.

How it works

Phase 1: Subject Intake & Framing

• Receive subject artifact (decision, strategy, plan, ADR, or proposal) and extract context metadata (subject type, time horizon, stakeholders, decision reversibility).
• Define validation scope and identify information sources.
• Set validation intensity (Light, Standard, Rigorous).
• Confirm framing with stakeholders and produce a framed subject with boundaries and context.

Phase 2: Assumption Surfacing

• Scan for explicit assumptions and document verbatim with source location.
• Probe for implicit assumptions using techniques (Inversion, Five Whys, Outsider Test, Pre-mortem, Dependency Mapping) based on assumption_depth.
• Surface structural assumptions if assumption_depth is full_structural using Frame Questioning, Missing Voices, Scope Boundary Probe, Alternative Structures.
• Document each assumption with ID, Statement, Type, Source, Initial confidence.
• Check completeness and produce a raw assumption inventory.

Phase 3: Classification & Prioritization

• Assign assumption types (EXPLICIT, IMPLICIT, STRUCTURAL, LOAD-BEARING, CONTEXTUAL, BEHAVIORAL).
• Perform load-bearing analysis scoring D, R, V, C and compute Priority = (D × (1 - C)) / V.
• Map dependencies for high-priority items.
• Identify load-bearing assumptions (priority > threshold or dependency 5 or STRUCTURAL).
• Rank and filter: Light top 3, Standard top 5, Rigorous all with priority > 1.0.

Phase 4: Validation & Stress-Testing

• Select validation methods per assumption type (EXPLICIT: evidence check; IMPLICIT: counterfactual; STRUCTURAL: frame alternatives; CONTEXTUAL: historical precedent; BEHAVIORAL: stakeholder interviews).
• Execute evidence checks starting with prioritized assumptions using primary, secondary, expert opinions as weights.

When to use it

Activate for pre-commitment decision reviews, strategy validation before execution, investment due diligence, ADRs, product direction pivots, and risk assessments requiring assumption audit. Triggers include: validate assumptions, test assumptions, assumption check, stress test this decision, what are we assuming, pre-mortem, what could go wrong, challenge this plan, devil's advocate.

What it can touch

Clauses reference methods and outputs; the skill utilizes artifacts like subject documents, ADRs, and supporting materials to extract, classify, and validate assumptions, producing a RISK-ASSESSMENT artifact.

Caveats

License: MIT. The skill defines a phased workflow with explicit questionnaires and techniques; outcomes depend on input quality and intensity level. No guarantees are stated beyond generating a structured RISK-ASSESSMENT and go/no-go recommendations per the defined scoring and methods.